According to the source, a claim has circulated that a U.S. court found the FBI not liable for wiping a hard drive allegedly holding 3,400 BTC; traders should seek an official court opinion or docket before acting on this headline, as independent verification is required (source: official court records/PACER or DOJ press materials, verification pending). Independently of this claim, on-chain research estimates 2.6–3.7 million BTC are likely lost or unrecoverable, representing roughly 12–18% of Bitcoin’s eventual 21 million cap, which reduces effective free float (source: Chainalysis research 2017; Glassnode Lost Coins analysis 2020; Bitcoin protocol supply cap as documented by Bitcoin.org). Growing illiquid supply and rising coin dormancy into 2023–2024 have historically coincided with stronger BTC trend persistence, tightening order book depth and widening slippage during rallies and drawdowns (source: Glassnode on-chain reports 2023–2024). For trading, consider laddered limit entries, wider stops, and monitoring exchange reserves and Illiquid Supply Change to gauge potential supply squeezes that can accelerate moves (source: Glassnode on-chain metrics; CryptoQuant exchange reserve dashboards). If the cited legal ruling is confirmed, the additional 3,400 BTC would incrementally reinforce the long-term illiquid supply trend rather than change near-term flows, but confirmation is essential before incorporating it into risk models (source: official court records; Chainalysis/Glassnode supply studies).

According to the source, Satoshi Nakamoto’s net worth is claimed to be back above $130 billion with none of his BTC spent; independent on-chain research attributes roughly 1.0–1.1 million BTC to early Satoshi-era mining and shows no confirmed spends from the Patoshi set after 2010 (Sergio Demian Lerner, 2013; 2019). For traders, continued dormancy of these coins reduces effective circulating float and can intensify upside moves when demand rises, a dynamic supported by analyses of illiquid supply growth and falling exchange balances (Glassnode Research, 2020–2023). Confirmation of any supply-driven price impact should be monitored via exchange reserves and UTXO age-band activity to gauge potential sell pressure or liquidity tightness (Glassnode Research; CryptoQuant).

According to @Andre_Dragosch, the percentage of HODLed BTC is now as high as it was at the start of the previous bull market, indicating strong long-term holding behavior by investors. Source: @Andre_Dragosch on X, Sep 25, 2025. He adds that illiquid BTC supply is at multi-year highs, underscoring reduced sell-side availability from long-term holders. Source: @Andre_Dragosch on X, Sep 25, 2025. He further notes that the share of BTC held on exchanges is at multi-year lows, pointing to diminished on-exchange balances. Source: @Andre_Dragosch on X, Sep 25, 2025. Based on these three on-chain supply metrics, he asserts this posture aligns with the beginning of a market cycle rather than the end, offering a bullish early-cycle context for BTC traders. Source: @Andre_Dragosch on X, Sep 25, 2025.

According to Crypto Rover, more than 6 million Bitcoin are now either lost or highly illiquid, significantly reducing the available circulating supply. This Bitcoin scarcity is creating heightened urgency among traders and investors, which could intensify bullish momentum and impact short-term price action. As the market digests this supply shock, traders should monitor on-chain metrics for further signs of reduced liquidity and potential volatility, as noted by Crypto Rover on June 8, 2025.